Tigray Warns of Renewed War: Ethiopia’s Pretoria Peace Deal Is Cracking Again
TPLF-linked figures accuse Ethiopia’s federal government of mobilizing forces across Tigray, raising fears that the fragile Pretoria Agreement may be unraveling.
Tigray is again warning that Ethiopia may be moving toward war. Senior TPLF-linked figures have accused the federal government of mobilizing forces from western to eastern Tigray and preparing for renewed confrontation. Addis Ababa has not accepted that framing, and the situation remains contested. But the warning is serious because Ethiopia’s Pretoria Agreement was never as settled as diplomats wanted to believe.
The 2022 Pretoria Agreement ended one of the deadliest wars of the 21st century. It was supposed to silence guns, restore services, disarm forces, resolve disputed territories and rebuild trust. Years later, many of those issues remain unresolved. Western Tigray, Eritrean involvement, local governance, armed factions, displaced communities and accountability for atrocities continue to poison the peace.
Fetlework Gebregziabher and others in the TPLF orbit argue that the federal government has violated the spirit of the agreement and that the existential threat to Tigrayans remains. They also accuse unnamed Tigrayan forces of betrayal by helping create conditions for another war. That internal accusation is important. Tigray’s crisis is not only a confrontation with Addis Ababa. It is also a struggle over who speaks for Tigray.
The federal government’s perspective is different. Addis Ababa sees the TPLF as a former ruling force that must fully disarm, accept constitutional order and stop using the threat of renewed conflict as leverage. Federal officials and rival Tigrayan actors argue that armed politics cannot be allowed to return under the cover of regional self-defense.
Both sides can point to real fears. Tigrayans remember siege, massacres, starvation, displacement and the collapse of basic services. The federal government remembers a war that threatened national fragmentation. Amhara forces, Eritrea, local militias and rival Tigrayan factions all have their own grievances. That is why the peace deal remains fragile: it froze a war without fully resolving the reasons it began.
International pressure is also contested. TPLF figures argue that the United States and European Union are pressuring Tigray while failing to hold Addis Ababa accountable. Western diplomats may believe they are preventing escalation. Local actors may perceive the same pressure as abandonment.
The danger is that rhetoric becomes mobilization. Once both sides believe the other is preparing for war, defensive preparations can become offensive triggers. Ethiopia has already paid the price of mistrust on a catastrophic scale. Another conflict in Tigray would not stay local. It would affect Eritrea, Sudan, the Red Sea corridor, humanitarian routes and Ethiopia’s internal political balance.
The world should not wait for verified battlefield footage before caring. In conflicts like Tigray, the warning signs often appear first in political statements, troop movements, blocked aid, arrests, local rumors and hardening language.
The headline says Tigray warns of renewed war. The deeper question is whether Pretoria was ever implemented deeply enough to prevent one.