Iraq Says Its Territory Will Not Be Used to Attack Any Country. The Hard Part Is Making Militias Obey.
Baghdad has repeatedly pledged that Iraqi territory will not be used to attack neighboring states. The statement is consistent with recent policy, but the real test is whether the government can control Iran-aligned armed groups with independent drone and missile capability.
Iraq is repeating a promise that has become central to its foreign policy: Iraqi territory will not be used as a launchpad for attacks against other countries.
The statement is not really new.
Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi, Iraq’s foreign minister and government spokesmen have made versions of the same pledge repeatedly in recent weeks as Baghdad tries to stop the Iran war from turning Iraq into a battlefield between Saudi Arabia, the United States and Iran-aligned militias.
The wording is easy.
Enforcing it is the real challenge.
Iraq’s constitution and government clearly reject allowing foreign or domestic armed actors to use the country to attack neighbours.
But Iraq’s security system contains powerful armed organisations that do not always operate under a single national chain of command.
The Popular Mobilization Forces are formally part of the Iraqi state. Some units are closely integrated with government institutions. Others maintain strong ideological and operational links with Iran.
Several factions grouped under labels such as the Islamic Resistance in Iraq have claimed attacks outside Iraq or been accused by regional governments of launching drones and missiles toward Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and other targets.
Those groups sometimes deny responsibility for specific incidents.
Saudi Arabia and the United States say intelligence can trace launches back to Iraqi territory.
This creates a sovereignty paradox.
Baghdad condemns foreign strikes on militia sites inside Iraq as violations of sovereignty.
Saudi Arabia asks why Iraqi sovereignty did not prevent drones from being launched toward Saudi energy infrastructure in the first place.
Both questions are legitimate.
The Iraqi government’s position is that it should be given the opportunity to investigate and control armed groups rather than having neighbouring states conduct unilateral attacks.
That requires credibility.
If Baghdad says no faction may attack another country, what happens when a faction ignores the order?
Does the government arrest commanders?
Confiscate launchers?
Control airspace?
Share intelligence with Riyadh?
The answer determines whether Iraq is a sovereign state with armed forces or territory containing several armed actors with independent foreign policies.
This issue is becoming more urgent as the United States prepares to complete its troop withdrawal from Iraq.
Iran-aligned factions historically justified independent weapons partly through resistance to American military presence.
Once most U.S. forces leave, Baghdad can argue that rationale has weakened.
The government is increasingly talking about state monopoly over weapons.
That is politically sensitive because the PMF also has deep roots in Iraq’s fight against Islamic State and significant support among parts of the population.
A confrontation between the government and powerful militias could itself destabilise the country.
Baghdad therefore prefers gradual integration and political negotiation.
Saudi Arabia wants faster guarantees because its infrastructure is being targeted now.
Iran watches the process closely because Iraqi groups are a central part of Tehran’s regional deterrence network.
The new Iraqi statement should therefore be understood less as a diplomatic slogan than as a strategic test.
Iraq wants good relations with Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United States and Turkey simultaneously.
That balancing strategy is possible only if other states believe Baghdad can prevent Iraqi territory from becoming a launchpad.
The open question is whether the government has enough authority to make its promise real—or whether the next drone launch will again force Iraq to argue that it condemns an attack it was unable to prevent.