Jonathan Pollard Warns Israel’s Next War Could Be Against Turkey and Egypt: Strategic Foresight or Dangerous Fantasy?
Jonathan Pollard says Israel should prepare for future conflict with Turkey and Egypt. The claim is extreme, but it reveals a widening Israeli security anxiety.
Jonathan Pollard has issued another warning that sounds less like analysis and more like prophecy: Israel’s next major war, he suggests, may not be against Iran, but against Turkey and Egypt. Pollard has argued that Israel may not have as easy a time with Turkey as it has had with Iran and that Jerusalem should prepare for a wider regional storm.
Pollard is not an ordinary commentator. He is the American-born former U.S. Navy intelligence analyst who served decades in prison for spying for Israel. In Israel, he is seen by some as a nationalist hero and by others as a polarizing figure whose views are often extreme. When he speaks about future wars, the audience is already divided before the sentence is finished.
His warning should not be treated as an official Israeli forecast. Turkey and Egypt are not Iran. Egypt has a peace treaty with Israel and deep security ties with the United States. Turkey is a NATO member with a powerful military, a complex economy and a long history of rivalry and cooperation with Israel. A war involving Israel, Turkey and Egypt would be catastrophic and is not something serious analysts should throw around lightly.
Yet Pollard’s comments touch a real anxiety in Israel. The regional map is shifting. Turkey has become more assertive in the Eastern Mediterranean, Syria, Libya, the Caucasus and Gaza diplomacy. Egypt faces internal economic stress, anger over Gaza and pressure around Sinai and the Rafah corridor. Israel’s war in Gaza, its strikes in Lebanon and its campaign against Iran have damaged its image across Muslim-majority states. Public anger does not automatically become state war, but governments cannot ignore it forever.
The Eastern Mediterranean is especially sensitive. Energy routes, naval access, Cyprus, Greece, Turkey, Israel and Egypt all intersect there. Pollard has previously written in support of closer Israel-Greece-Cyprus alignment against Turkish pressure. From that perspective, Turkey is not a distant rhetorical enemy but a serious maritime and strategic challenger.
Still, the leap from tension to “next war” is enormous. Wars require triggers, capabilities, political decisions and miscalculations. Turkey may confront Israel rhetorically while avoiding direct war. Egypt may condemn Israeli actions while preserving treaty stability. Israel may posture against both without wanting another front. The region is dangerous enough without turning every strategic rivalry into destiny.
There is also a psychological dimension. After years of conflict, societies begin to normalize permanent threat. Once Iran is framed as containable or temporarily paused by a deal, hardliners need the next horizon of danger. Turkey and Egypt become the new warnings. That can be useful for preparedness, but it can also become self-fulfilling if leaders start acting as if future enemies are already present enemies.
The headline says Pollard sees war with Turkey and Egypt coming. The responsible reading is that a controversial former spy is voicing a maximalist version of Israeli security anxiety at a time when the Middle East order is unstable. His warning should be examined, not adopted as fact.
The deeper question is whether Israel’s security doctrine is expanding so widely that no regional power can remain outside the threat map. If every major Muslim country is viewed as a future battlefield, diplomacy becomes impossible and the storm Pollard predicts becomes easier to create.