UAE Reportedly Considering OPEC+ Exit Amid Production Quota Disputes
Sources suggest the UAE is weighing departure from the OPEC+ alliance over disagreements about production ceilings, a move that could reshape global oil markets.
The United Arab Emirates is reportedly evaluating an exit from the OPEC+ production agreement, according to sources familiar with internal Abu Dhabi deliberations. The dispute centers on the UAE's desire to monetize spare capacity built up at significant cost over the past decade.
Energy ministry officials in Abu Dhabi have privately expressed frustration that the country's baseline quota does not reflect actual production capacity, which now exceeds 4.85 million barrels per day. Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of OPEC+, has resisted upward revisions to UAE quotas during recent ministerial meetings.
A UAE departure would mark the most significant rupture in the OPEC+ framework since its 2016 formation. Analysts at Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan estimate that unrestricted Emirati output could add 600,000 to 800,000 barrels per day to global supply within six months, potentially pushing Brent crude below $60.
Officials at ADNOC have declined to comment on the reports. The UAE Energy Ministry issued a brief statement reiterating its "commitment to constructive dialogue within OPEC+ frameworks" but stopped short of denying exit considerations.