Gulf States Brace for Iran’s Next Response if the US Strikes Again—Can They Stay Out of a War That Reaches Their Infrastructure?
Washington has warned regional allies to prepare for possible new strikes and retaliation. Gulf leaders are also calling for de-escalation as they weigh the risks to bases, energy sites and shipping.
Gulf governments are preparing for the possibility that renewed US strikes on Iran could bring retaliation to their own territory, energy infrastructure and shipping routes. US officials have reportedly warned regional partners to get ready for a campaign after the November 3 midterm elections. At the same time, Gulf leaders are publicly urging restraint and keeping diplomatic channels open with Tehran. Readiness is not the same as consent to war: these countries may be preparing precisely because they fear the consequences.
What the warnings and threats say
The Associated Press reported that US officials told several regional governments to prepare for possible renewed military action and possible Iranian retaliation against energy facilities and other critical infrastructure. Diplomats cited in the report said Trump had not made a final decision. Iran's senior officials have warned that any new attack could draw a broader response. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei recently instructed the armed forces to be prepared for an immediate response without geographic limits.
Iran has also threatened US-linked infrastructure, including oil sites, undersea communications cables, data centers and AI facilities across the Gulf. These warnings may be intended to deter US action by raising the economic and political cost. They should not be reported as evidence that an attack has already been ordered.
A difficult position for Gulf governments
Several Gulf states host US forces or depend on US security guarantees, while also sharing borders, sea lanes and economic ties with Iran. If their territory is used to support strikes, Tehran may regard them as participants. If they limit US access, they may strain an important alliance. Energy facilities are especially vulnerable because a single attack can disrupt exports and trigger wider market effects.
Gulf governments have strengthened air and counter-drone defenses since earlier attacks, but no system offers complete protection. Their leaders are concerned about a war that could spread beyond Iran and Israel, close Hormuz, damage ports or disrupt desalination and power systems. They also face humanitarian and economic risks if regional conflict produces new displacement or prolonged instability.
Preparing is not predicting
Military readiness is a precaution, not proof that leaders expect a strike on a specific date. Public and private preparations may also be intended to deter escalation or reassure citizens. The key questions are whether diplomatic channels are producing concrete proposals, whether Washington has decided on military action and what guarantees Gulf countries are seeking from both sides.
Can Gulf states persuade Washington to keep negotiating while protecting themselves from retaliation? Will Iran distinguish countries that host US forces from those that support an attack? And what does “prepared for the worst” mean for civilians who depend on energy, water and transport systems? The region is bracing for risk, but the path to war is not inevitable.
Preparedness can protect civilians, but it can also raise tensions
Air-defense deployments, continuity plans for energy networks and emergency communications are reasonable responses to credible risk. Yet visible preparations can be interpreted by the other side as evidence that an attack is being planned. Governments should communicate defensive measures clearly and maintain hotlines to avoid a chain reaction. Gulf states also need plans for people who depend on desalination, hospitals and electricity, not only for oil terminals and military bases.
Public warnings can help residents prepare, but vague language about “the worst” may create panic. What have governments specifically advised citizens to do? Which sites have been placed on higher alert? And are Gulf leaders coordinating a common diplomatic message to Washington and Tehran? Preparation makes sense when it is paired with efforts to prevent the scenario being prepared for.