Goodbye Merz? AfD Test in Mecklenburg and Berlin Vote Put Germany’s Chancellor Under Pressure
Two state elections threaten fresh humiliation for Friedrich Merz’s CDU, but even a disastrous result would create political pressure—not automatic removal.
Germany’s elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania have become a referendum on Chancellor Friedrich Merz—even though his name is not on either state ballot.
Reuters reported that the CDU entered September 20 under severe pressure after the AfD’s breakthrough in Saxony-Anhalt. In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, polls placed the CDU around 6%, dangerously close to the 5% threshold for representation. In Berlin, the Left had moved ahead of the CDU, threatening the party’s hold on the mayor’s office, while the AfD was expected to make further gains.
The most dramatic viral prediction says Merz will “most likely” have to resign if the CDU performs badly, especially if it falls below 5% in Mecklenburg. That result would be humiliating and could accelerate a leadership revolt. It would not legally remove the chancellor.
Germany’s federal government is determined by the Bundestag, not state legislatures. Merz can resign voluntarily, lose the confidence of his coalition or be replaced through a constructive vote of no confidence in which parliament simultaneously elects a successor. A regional threshold failure has no automatic federal effect.
Politics, however, is not only law. Merz’s approval ratings have fallen sharply amid economic stagnation, high energy costs, disputes over pensions and taxes, and dissatisfaction with migration policy. Successive state defeats can persuade CDU lawmakers that he is damaging the party nationally. Potential rivals and coalition partners would then calculate whether replacing him is less risky than continuing.
Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania matters because the CDU was once a major force there. Falling out of the state parliament would suggest that conservative voters are moving to the AfD while centrist voters look elsewhere. Even if other parties prevent the AfD from forming a government, finishing first or close to first would strengthen its argument that the “firewall” is denying voters their preferred leadership.
Berlin tells a different story. It is more urban, diverse and left-leaning. Strong results for the Left do not simply translate into national AfD momentum. The CDU’s problem is being squeezed from both directions: right-wing voters criticize it for accommodating progressive policy, while urban moderates may reject its harder rhetoric or blame it for governance failures.
The claim that “no major shifts” are possible in Berlin may therefore underestimate the symbolic stakes. Losing the mayoralty or falling behind the Left would weaken Merz’s claim that the CDU can govern large cities. AfD gains in the capital would also show that its appeal is no longer confined to rural eastern districts.
The firewall question will dominate coalition talks. Mainstream parties have refused cooperation with the AfD because of its extremist elements and challenges to Germany’s postwar democratic consensus. Critics say this produces unstable coalitions that combine parties with incompatible programs. Supporters argue that normalizing the AfD could give anti-democratic politics control of state institutions.
A CDU result below 5% would not mean conservatism has disappeared; it could mean conservative voters have migrated. Merz must decide whether to compete with the AfD on migration and energy, differentiate through economic competence, or defend the center. Each strategy risks losing another group.
The results may also affect Europe. A weakened chancellor has less freedom on Ukraine, defense spending, EU fiscal policy and industrial reform. The AfD opposes much of Germany’s current Russia and Ukraine policy. The Left’s rise would pressure Merz from a different direction on welfare and militarization.
Exit polls and early counts will need careful interpretation. Berlin and Mecklenburg use proportional systems in which small changes near the 5% threshold can transform seat allocation. Postal ballots and late-counted districts may alter coalition arithmetic even if they do not change the largest party. “Winning” the popular vote also does not guarantee governing: a party must assemble a majority in the legislature. AfD supporters see exclusion as undemocratic, while its opponents argue coalition choice is itself part of parliamentary democracy.
What to watch next
Does the CDU cross 5% in Mecklenburg? Who finishes first in Berlin, and can any coalition govern without the AfD? Do CDU leaders publicly defend Merz after the count, or begin discussing successors? The elections cannot dismiss the chancellor by themselves. They can, however, convince his own party that keeping him is more dangerous than replacing him—and that is the real path to “goodbye Merz.”